The Morning After

One of the main points I was predicting when it became increasingly likely that the No vote would end up the victorious today was the likely impact of the Conservative right's opinion regarding their leader.

Now many Labour voting and other left wing friends of mine, and strangers too, had extolled the need to "punish Clegg" and give him the bloody nose he deserves after acting as a prop to the Tory-led government. And, as a result, people were arguing that it was the only way to break the coalition.

I have a different view of the affair, which is probably down to my own views on the need for electoral reform. I think otherwise; the worst thing for the current government would be for the Yes vote to have won. Cameron would have lost all support from his right wing MPs, and Clegg would have at least gained something from entering government alongside him. In that case, the Tories would have faced a few years of in-fighting whilst they end up having to find a new leader, Clegg would still be damaged anyway, and it would be opposition parties who would benefit.

Instead, we will have a happy bunch of Tory MPs, and some miserable Lib Dems. The Lib Dems won't want to leave the coalition until their support has recovered somewhat, and the Tories are strengthened, and have less need to succumb to Lib Dem demands.

For me, on the face of it, whilst it has been a fantastic polling day for the SNP and a reasonable day for the Labour, it's not been too bad a day for the Tories either.